Bayesian earthquake dating and seismic hazard assessment using chlorine-36 measurements (BED v1)

Facilitating Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Using Bayesian Networks

In probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, one wants to calculate the probability of exceedance of a certain shaking level at a particular site. This requires a good understanding of the parameters that can influence seismic ground-motions. Bayesian networks are used to investigate the probabilistic dependencies between several parameters of the groundmotion domain. Problems specific to the doma...

Computational Geodynamics for Seismic Hazard Analysis and Earthquake Prediction

Seismic Assessment using a Bayesian Network

This paper presents a framework for seismic vulnerability assessment based on Bayesian Networks. This framework incorporates the HAZUS model, the demand model and the capacity model, which are used to calculate the probabilities of earthquake-induced bridge damage. The framework is here applied to ‘twin’ bridges that are correlated with the demand model and the capacity model. The paper investi...

Poisson model for earthquake frequency uncertainties in seismic hazard analysis

Frequency-magnitude distributions, and their associated uncertainties, are of key importance in statistical seismology. When fitting these distributions , the assumption of Gaussian residuals is invalid since event numbers are both discrete and of unequal variance. In general, the observed number in any given magnitude range is described by a binomial distribution which, given a large total num...

A review of earthquake occurrence models for seismic hazard analysis

A large number of probabilistic earthquake occurrence models are currently available for seismic hazard assessment. This paper reviews the basic assumptions of the various models, summarizes their stochastic representations and discusses the parameters needed for applications. While the Poisson model is one of the most commonly used in practice it is limited in its representation of the physica...